I started reading a new book recently. The book is Antifragile by Nassim Taleb. It is a rather interesting book in that it seems to be a compilation of insights and anecdotes that leaves you with a general reasoning or formula, but no prescriptive application. I like this. It is the type of book that not only suits thinking across domains, it actually outright requests that you do so. That is one of my favorite problem solving approaches: take what you do know and apply the general rules and logic to a domain that you don't know. It can lead to some tremendously insightful solutions. Also some awful ideas, but you win some, you lose some.
I feel like this book has really put to words many of the thoughts I have had on living. For almost anything I set out to do, the thought is "how do I accomplish this in the way that is the most bulletproof?" Essentially, think of what can go wrong, and anticipate that. Many take this approach, but I feel like few who do take this approach also are doing so in order to pivot and capitalize. Most seek just to make it through, not thrive. My thought is always to develop a bulletproof system or method so that when the bullets do fly, you not only survive, but when they stop flying, you are the first one back up and running, ready to not only benefit from being in better shape than everyone else, but also to be in a position to lend a helping hand.
One of the interesting ideas Taleb speaks of is the tendency to use the historical worst case scenario as the benchmark for testing ideas. That is to look at the worst the situation has ever been and see how your solution would fare. The eye opener though is that he points out every historical worst case has one thing in common, it was worse than the previous historical worse! That means that it is patently stupid for us to test our system in the light of what is the worst that has happened. If we want to really say we are taking an interest in improving, we must test our system in a scenario which is worse than the our previous benchmark.
This realization is a two edged sword. On one side, we now have the realization that not only is an unprecedented level of bad possible, it is expected, with some probability (usually poorly understood) in the future. The proverbial shit will hit the fan, and likely a bigger pile and a bigger fan next time. The other side is that if you are expecting the unexpected and testing your system against the unprecedented, then you can poise yourself to benefit from being prepared. The old saying, "I spent 30 years preparing to be lucky" rings true.
The book has really reinforced my long-held belief that dependence is the epitome of fragility. The more you can do for yourself, and the more you are accustomed to doing for yourself, the better off you will be. Certainly take advantage of expertise or the knowledge of those who are more versed than yourself, but never sacrifice the opportunity to learn not just what to do, but also how to do it for yourself.
Many modern systems are more fragile than many believe. The modern food system is a great example. The distribution of food is so dispersed and interdependent on so many factors, that it could easily be crippled. Labor strikes, energy shortages, weather events in production or processing areas, weather in areas of distribution (how many NOLA grocery stores took delivery in the days following hurricane Katrina?), political events, pathogens, and others could all substantially disrupt the just in time food delivery model of many modern areas. This is why growing your own food is such a great thing to do. Even if you never need to do it, practicing ensures that you could do something to help yourself if needed. You may not be able to do much, but it is relative. If you can do more than others, you are in a position to help not just yourself, but also those others who cannot do for themselves.
The book so far has been a good look at what it means to weather the storm, and has helped me shift my thinking from just surviving the storm to anticipating a bigger storm and planning how to benefit from it. It also helps me to enjoy the beautiful days like today and not take them for granted. That last one may be the most important.
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