Expecting the Unexpected or Rather the Unprecedented

      I started reading a new book recently. The book is Antifragile by Nassim Taleb. It is a rather interesting book in that it seems to be a compilation of insights and anecdotes that leaves you with a general reasoning or formula, but no prescriptive application. I like this. It is the type of book that not only suits thinking across domains, it actually outright requests that you do so. That is one of my favorite problem solving approaches: take what you do know and apply the general rules and logic to a domain that you don't know. It can lead to some tremendously insightful solutions. Also some awful ideas, but you win some, you lose some.
    I feel like this book has really put to words many of the thoughts I have had on living. For almost anything I set out to do, the thought is "how do I accomplish this in the way that is the most bulletproof?" Essentially, think of what can go wrong, and anticipate that. Many take this approach, but I feel like few who do take this approach also are doing so in order to pivot and capitalize. Most seek just to make it through, not thrive. My thought is always to develop a bulletproof system or method so that when the bullets do fly, you not only survive, but when they stop flying, you are the first one back up and running, ready to not only benefit from being in better shape than everyone else, but also to be in a position to lend a helping hand.
     One of the interesting ideas Taleb speaks of is the tendency to use the historical worst case scenario as the benchmark for testing ideas. That is to look at the worst the situation has ever been and see how your solution would fare. The eye opener though is that he points out every historical worst case has one thing in common, it was worse than the previous historical worse! That means that it is patently stupid for us to test our system in the light of what is the worst that has happened. If we want to really say we are taking an interest in improving, we must test our system in a scenario which is worse than the our previous benchmark.
     This realization is a two edged sword. On one side, we now have the realization that not only is an unprecedented level of bad possible, it is expected, with some probability (usually poorly understood) in the future. The proverbial shit will hit the fan, and likely a bigger pile and a bigger fan next time. The other side is that if you are expecting the unexpected and testing your system against the unprecedented, then you can poise yourself to benefit from being prepared. The old saying, "I spent 30 years preparing to be lucky" rings true.
     The book has really reinforced my long-held belief that dependence is the epitome of fragility. The more you can do for yourself, and the more you are accustomed to doing for yourself, the better off you will be. Certainly take advantage of expertise or the knowledge of those who are more versed than yourself, but never sacrifice the opportunity to learn not just what to do, but also how to do it for yourself.
     Many modern systems are more fragile than many believe. The modern food system is a great example. The distribution of food is so dispersed and interdependent on so many factors, that it could easily be crippled. Labor strikes, energy shortages, weather events in production or processing areas, weather in areas of distribution (how many NOLA grocery stores took delivery in the days following hurricane Katrina?), political events, pathogens, and others could all substantially disrupt the just in time food delivery model of many modern areas. This is why growing your own food is such a great thing to do. Even if you never need to do it, practicing ensures that you could do something to help yourself if needed. You may not be able to do much, but it is relative. If you can do more than others, you are in a position to help not just yourself, but also those others who cannot do for themselves.
      The book so far has been a good look at what it means to weather the storm, and has helped me shift my thinking from just surviving the storm to anticipating a bigger storm and planning how to benefit from it. It also helps me to enjoy the beautiful days like today and not take them for granted. That last one may be the most important.

Remember Why You Are Here

    Today I had strange moment. I was trying to help someone by giving some advice that I have found helpful in the past. It struck me though, when I said it, with the gravity of the advice. It was as if I was not only giving the advice, but also receiving it anew. The exact situation was that this friend was upset about making some simple mistakes when transferring answers from the paper where problems had been worked out into the computer where they were turned in and graded. So I asked. "Why are you taking this class?" The answer was, "To learn."
    There it is. I went on to explain that if you did the problem, did it right, and understand it, then as frustrating as making typing errors or silly errors, that shouldn't matter if you learned. The knowledge is the goal. The grade should be a by product.
     This hit me as profound, because I had always applied the logic to my academic pursuits, but I failed to see the application to the rest of life. I find that humans have a tendency to substitute trivial totems in place of real meaning. Grades instead of knowledge. Status instead of self respect. Material goods instead of contentment.
     Part of the challenge is that it is frequently easier to measure one than the other. How does one measure contentment? All too frequently material goods are substituted for contentment, because, the logic goes, if we just get x then we will be content. That holds no more truth than saying if I just get an A I will know the material. In fact, I find that in almost all of these cases, if you reverse the prevailing logic, you are closer to the true path. Get knowledge, grades will follow. Learn to respect yourself and status will follow. Learn contentment and you will have all the material goods you need.

Maybe we are all just backwards.

I need to remind myself:

Remember Why You Are Here

Math, and Why Happiness Isn't an Equation.

     So, anyone who has spent anytime reading modern personal finance philosophy will notice that the consensus is weighted rather heavily toward the side of "don't pay off your mortgage quickly, invest instead." The reason for this is math. Any extra you pay on the principle of your mortgage will yield "returns" equal to your interest rate. You'll notice I put returns in quotations. The reason for that is that you don't see actual returns, what you actually see is savings. I think this is a return because, quite simply, it is still money you would not otherwise have. In our low interest rate years that have persisted for sometime, most folks have an interest rate under 5%. So, at best your early payments yield 5% returns.

    The reason most out there will advocate against early payments is because the stock market historically yields better. Traditionally in the 6-9% range. Keep in mind too, due to compounding, that a 2% difference is not 2% more money. The difference in 10K invested for 20 years at 7% and at 5% is $13,260, which of course is not inconsequential. So of course, if you can save additional money and invest it as opposed to paying your mortgage, with the power of compounding, you can rather quickly get to a point where your passive income from that investment will cover your cost of rent, and much like owning a property, you essentially have no cost for month to month housing (ignoring maintenance of course). 

    Generally, in most cases, you would mathematically come out with more money at the end of the scenario in which you invest excess as opposed to pay down your mortgage. Thus the majority consensus. 

    But happiness isn't an equation. The part that gets left out, is the day to day lifestyle. For some  people, owning the home is an important part of day to day happiness. I think for people who despise inefficiency, or love efficiency, or in most cases both, owning the home is a critical part of day to day happiness. There is something extremely satisfying about seeing a problem, developing a solution, and implementing it. If you rent a place, you rarely have this option. 

    It's true that when you factor in the cost of maintenance of owning vs renting, the rent/invest strategy comes out even further ahead. My only issue is that I derive far more happiness from replacing something broken with an elegant or efficient solution than I would from looking at my bank account before and after the landlord makes repairs and seeing that the number has grown. Just me. 

     I'm going to do a more in depth analysis of our particular case to see exactly what the difference in earnings, net worth, etc. would be in the two scenarios. Full disclosure, I have not done this yet, so I do not know exactly what the gap will be. 

     So why make such an uniformed decision when the math is relatively straight forward?  

Simple. 

We made the decision on happiness. Happiness isn't an equation.

When You Can See the Finish Line

      If you have ever run a race, then you will understand what I am going to try and convey. If you are racing, and I mean truly racing, not just running to finish, then you know how it feels when you can see the finish line. It is the light at the end of the tunnel that lets you know your suffering has not been in vain, and that your ultimate goal is within reach. Seeing the finish line is usually the spark that helps you reach deep and pull up the last traces of strength you have left to finish fast, holding nothing back.

     It can be the same with long-term goals. I remember when I was finishing up my masters degree, the feeling I had starting classes in January knowing that was my last semester. I was still very much in the thick of it, but the end was in sight. It was a great feeling. Knowing that the culmination of 3 years of watching classes before work, at lunch, and after work while also fitting in homework and term papers was going finally pay off in a concrete way! I dare say, the moment the finish line is in sight might be better than actually crossing the finish line. After all, if you are racing to win, you should be exhausted when you cross the finish line. Conversely, when you first see the finish line, you often feel an increase in strength swelling up within as you realize the struggle is almost over.

     I'm excited to say, that for another one of our long-term goals, the finish line is in sight. It's a goal we have been working on for a little over three years, and I must confess, the finish line is a welcome sight indeed. This goal has been one where the effort is measured in diligence and restraint, and not sweat like running, or hours studying like school. That is not to say this has been any easier.

      The wife and I were discussing what it has been like to run this "race" over the past few years and in summation, it really hasn't been that hard. It has certainly had difficult moments. Times where we just wanted to say forget the race and lets do something else, just for short while and then we will get running again. Despite these few times, we persevered and stayed true to the course.

      I think this goal has been interesting in that it has required more sacrifice and diligence than effort. Sacrifice not meant to indicate a negative, rather just to stress prioritizing one goal over others. This has had an interesting effect though. It turns out, when you sacrifice other things for the pursuit of a goal you value more, you tend to forget about the things you sacrificed. Perhaps you actually don't forget about them, you just forget you wanted them because you never let them materialize. It's a classic case of "you don't know what you're missing." It's awful tough to miss something you never had. I guess that has helped make this path much more bearable. This is also a strikingly profound lesson to learn in life.

     All this to say that the finish line is in sight. In an almost comical turn of events, this finish line happens to fall almost exactly a year after my masters' finish line. I must say I don't mind that at all, given my love of summer it will be nice to welcome the summer as the start of a new chapter. We may not be so physically drained when we cross this finish line, but it will certainly feel good to have finished the race!



     A quick note on racing: Anyone can race. When I say "race" what I mean is that you are giving it your best effort. So the person who is fighting for the win isn't racing any more than the person who comes in 278th place, but fought with every ounce of strength to be in the position to pass number 279 with their last full force effort right before the finish line. Both are racing in the truest sense of the word. The stakes don't make the race, the effort makes the race. I am very much against the 'enter a race to participate" culture that is so popular these days. Race to do your best. I don't understand otherwise. I digress.

Can You Build Paradise?

     Yesterday, in a rather unusual choice of activities, I laid in the hammock for quite some time despite the fact that it was about 48 degrees at the time. Cold by Florida standards. I grabbed the sleeping bag and my headphones and got all settled in for a nice winter nap. I ended up not using the headphones for the first half hour and instead just listened to the wind and the trees. It was a bit breezy on account of the cold front moving in, which brought with it even cooler night air.

Cold day hammock nap. Sleeping bag was the best decision.

     As the wind was blowing I was imagining the same scenario in summer. After I finish mowing the yard or tending to the garden, retreating to the hammock for an afternoon nap in the shade of the trees. I was imagining different areas where I could possibly locate the hammock, thinking if there were areas among what will be many wild looking plants growing fiercely in the sun and rain of the early summer. As I was doing this I imagined what the view from the hammock would look like if my imagination were the only limit. It turns out, my idea of paradise looks an awful lot like my front yard with just a little modification. More banana trees for starters. Lots more banana trees. A little change to the front porch, new paint for the house, some reworking of the driveway to make room for the wife's English garden, and of course room for more banana trees.
     None of these ideas in and of themselves seemed impossible, or even improbable, just not immediate. These things take time and perseverance. I can dream of big piece of land with all the space to roam and experiment, but when it comes down to it, I can picture paradise here just as well as anywhere. I think that is why I believe we can build paradise; because we can picture it where we are. If you aren't able to picture a better tomorrow where you are today, then no amount of planning or resources will allow you to build paradise, because you will not be happy where you are. Paradise is as much about happiness as it is environment. Don't believe me? Think about when you were a kid and miserable in some fantastic location. My bet is you were infinitely happier in you backyard tree fort or at the basketball court. The environment can only take you so far. The contentment comes first, then the realization of what makes things great.
       Can you build paradise? If you are already content, then certainly you can. You just can't do it all today.

The Most Important Steps Are The Least Fun

Bella knows the important steps.

    It occurred to me while driving this week that the most important parts of almost every pursuit are also the least fun parts of that pursuit. I was frustrated at the time about not being able to redo our deck at this time. The deck is old and rickety, and has been re-screwed more times than I can count, and is still falling apart. I would love to just rip it out and start anew. The only problem with that is that it would throw a major wrench into the plans to pay off the house. The deck is not the sole thought like this. It occurs almost monthly that I come across a project that falls firmly in the want category rather than the need. You see, the deck has not yet reached the point of being a safety hazard. It is an eye sore perhaps, and a practice in futility while trying to extend its life, but for now it remains functional enough. For these reasons, replacing the deck is a want. If it were a safety concern I would just remove it and do without a deck for a while. A deck is a want. No one ever perished for their need of a deck.
     Back to the bigger point. I realized that continuously spying projects, dreaming up solutions, and then placing them on the back burner just plain sucks. To keep saying no to what are perfectly reasonable ambitions really drags on you over time. It isn't without its positives though. One certainly learns contentment and ingenuity. It is difficult however because if we were to step out of our bubble and act like the majority of people in the world, we could and would have completed many of these projects by now. Most of them are within the window of affordability that we could have completed them and met our other financial obligations. Most of them are projects that I could do, which would even save a substantial amount of money. So telling ourselves no to so many of these projects over the last 3 years has been hard. It is one of the hardest parts of sticking to such an aggressive goal.
    That was when it hit me, that the most important steps are always the least fun. The most important part of learning a new subject is the continuous struggle of practice. Problem set after problem set, chapter after chapter. It is the unseen day to day grind that is the most important part. The midterm is not really the most important part, it is just the proxy that we use to show whether or not the important work was done. When preparing for a race, it is not the race that is the important part, rather it is the silent and unseen mileage put in day in and day out leading up to that race. It's not even the good days where the miles fly by and speed comes in abundance that is the most important. It's the days where your legs are heavy and your breath is fleeting. The days where minutes feel like hours and miles drag on for days. Those. Those are the important days. Those are the days when the casual runner will hang up their shoes and wait for the next day. They are the days that even the committed find themselves skipping from time to time. It is in the moments that we have the most abundant and reasonable excuses to quit that the most important work is done. These times are always the least fun.
    Life is not about punishing yourself, but it should be about pushing yourself. Setting goals and going after them. If you ever find yourself in a situation where most people are telling you that your goals are unreasonable stop and remember: most people quit before they make it to the important steps. Know, if your goal is ambitious your path will be punishing. This may sound grim, I know. Ask yourself though, "Do you remember your studying for the test that you aced? or do you remember the awful days of training for your best race?" I suspect maybe, if you really try very hard, but if you are like me, those difficult but important times on your way to your goal are just vagaries and pale in comparison the feeling and memory of the goal achieved.
     Go forth and achieve. Know, if you find yourself in a moment that is decidedly not fun, just smile and know that the important steps are upon you. Why would you quit now?